Dilemma of security vs sustainability for the energy sector

Voditelj projekta: Saša Žiković

Članovi projektnog tima:

Iznos financiranja: 5.840,00 EUR (44.000,00 kn)

Opis projekta: Agresija Rusije na Ukrajinu zatekla je cijelo europsko gospodarstvo, ali posebice energetski sektor. Iako je Europska Unija u posljednja dva desetljeća postavila se kao globalni lider u tranziciji energetskog sektora, proklamirane promjene još uvijek nisu provedene do kraja te čak i najrazvijenije članice Europske Unije nisu u potpunosti implementirali EU direktive vezane uz jedinstveno tržište električne energije i prirodnog plina. Problem intermitentnosti proizvodnje te ekonomske konkurentnosti obnovljivih izvora energije na otvorenom tržištu električne energije je jedan od glavnih problema u formulaciji energetske nacionalne politike, kao i nadnacionalne politike same EU. Kroz znanstvene radove analizirati će se konkurentnost raznih tipova elektrana s obzirom na kapitalni trošak, operativni trošak i trošak goriva, kao i veleprodajne cijene električne energije te poticaji za obnovljive izvore energije u odabranim zemljama EU i ostalim dijelovima svijeta. S obzirom na velike promjene koje se očekuju u energetici i svim ostalim sektorima zbog energetske tranzicije prema niskougljičnoj i održivoj ekonomiji, područje istraživanja odnosi se i na aktualnu problematiku energetske učinkovitosti u zemljama EU. Nadalje, analizirati će se promjene u portfelju primarnih i sekundarnih izvora energije u "novim" zemljama EU, s obzirom na rastuću važnost prirodnog plina, vodika i njegovih derivata. Ključno područje analize odnosi se na mogućnosti stvorene razvojem tehnologija koje omogućuju transport plina i vodika uz korištenje druge logističke infrastrukture osim klasičnih plinovoda. Budući da je izgradnja nove plinske infrastrukture dugotrajan i skup proces razvoj UPP (ukapljeni prirodni plin) i SPP (stlačeni prirodni plin) tehnologija koje omogućuju zaobilaženje zemljopisnih i geopolitičkih prepreka predstavlja izvanrednu priliku za poboljšanje energetske sigurnosti EU. U svjetlu agresije Rusije na Ukrajinu te posljedičnog okretanja Rusije azijskim tržištima projekt Sjeverni tok 2 je na duži rok zaustavljen ali postaje sve više upitna i dugoročna budućnost plinovoda: Sjeverni tok, Yamal, Bratstvo i Soyuz. Ista logika i veoma upitna budućnost odnosi se i na naftovode Sjeverna i Južna Družba, što osim dosadašnjeg problema s plinom otvara novi izazov pred europske rafinerije i europski transportni sustav. U sklopu projekta analizirati će se kako će Europska Unija pristupiti problematici energetske sigurnosti i održivosti svog gospodarstva te što se može očekivati u budućnosti. Analizirani sektori uključivati će, ali neće biti ograničeni samo na: energetiku, turizam, transport i komunalne usluge.

 

Abstract: Russia's aggression against Ukraine has caught the whole European economy, but especially the energy sector, of guard. Although, in the last two decades, the European Union has emerged as a global leader in energy transition, the proclaimed changes have not yet been completed and even the most developed EU member states have not fully implemented EU directives regarding the single electricity and gas market. The problem of intermittency of production and economic competitiveness of renewable energy sources in the open electricity market is one of the main problems in formulating national energy policy as well as supranational policies of the EU itself. Through our research, the competitiveness of various types of power plants will be analysed with regard to capital costs, operating costs and fuel costs as well as wholesale electricity prices and incentives for renewable energy in selected EU countries. Given the great changes expected in energy and all other sectors due to energy transition towards the low-carbon and sustainable economy, the area of research also relates to the current energy efficiency issues in the EU countries. Furthermore, we will analyse the changes in the portfolio of primary and secondary energy sources in the "new" EU countries, given the growing importance of natural gas, hydrogen and its derivatives. The key area of the analysis relates to the opportunities created by the development of technologies that enable natural gas and hydrogen transport with the use of other logistics infrastructure other than the conventional gas pipelines. Since the construction of a new gas infrastructure is a time consuming and expensive process, the development of LNG (liquefied natural gas) and CNG (compressed natural gas) technologies to circumvent geographic and geopolitical obstacles represents an outstanding opportunity to improve the energy security of EU member states. In light of Russia's aggression on Ukraine and Russia's consequent repositioning towards Asian markets, the Nord Stream 2 project has been halted indefinitely. The long-term future of other gas pipeline supplying EU from Russia is becoming increasingly questionable: Nord Stream, Yamal, Bratstvo and Soyuz. The same logic and a very questionable future applies also to the Northern and Southern Druzhba oil pipelines, which, in addition to the current gas problem, opens a new challenge for European refineries and the European transportation system. We will analyse how the European Union will approach the issue of energy security and sustainability of its economy and what can be expected in the future. The analysed sectors will include, but will not be limited to: energy, tourism, transport and utilities.

 

Key words: energy economics, sustainable development, renewable energy sources, energy markets, financial markets, energy security

Šifra projekta: ZIP-UNIRI-2023-10