Tourism and sustainable economic growth: possibility or utopia

All countries in the world derive revenue from tourism, and it is up to policy makers to decide how tourism should develop. If tourism is a strategic economic activity, the international competitiveness and long-term economic sustainability of the tourism industry must be strategically planned and supported. Given the increasing number of symmetric (the COVID-19 pandemic) and asymmetric (earthquakes in Zagreb and Petrinja; war in Ukraine and the Middle East) exogenous shocks, any long-term development plan for the tourism industry (and oth. industries) should include measures that max. the industry's protection from the aforementioned shocks, with the ultimate goal of minimizing the negative impact on economic growth. The scientific starting point for the elaboration of such measures is the econometric analysis of macroeconomic exog. shocks based on historical data, where up to five previously mentioned events can be classified as significant exog. shocks starting from 2020. The main purpose of the research is to provide recommendations for policy makers that would make economic growth sustainable in post-shock periods. The project aims to quantify seasonal (short-term) and cyclical (long-term) macroeconomic shocks to economic growth through the tourism activity channel, and to provide recommendations to economic policy makers on what measures can mitigate the impact of shocks and make economic growth sustainable in a state of constant uncertainty.